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The yen’s strength is a red flag for world markets, but a massive domestic problem as well. It hurts Japanese exports and the Bank of Japan, which only months ago looked keen to normalize policy, may see it as a risk to its decades-long efforts to create inflation. Indeed, on their first day back to work, BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda echoed ECB chief Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” comment and top FX diplomat Masatsugu Asakawa reminded FX traders of past G7 and G20 coordination on intervention. Such reminders may get louder in the coming days and weeks vintage cufflinks identification.
3/ BACK TO SCHOOL, 5-DAY RULE. There’s no denying it: it’s been a rocky start to the year for world markets. Just how rocky the ride is for the rest of 2019 remains to be seen, of course, but it might be worth keeping an eye on one of investors’ quirky market guidelines for clues: the so-called “S&P Five-Day Rule”. It’s a “rule” often touted by ex-Goldman bigwig Jim O’Neill, and goes like this: when the S&P 500 rises in the first five trading days of the year, the market turns in a positive annual performance. O’Neill puts the success rate of this rule of thumb since 1950 at more than 85 percent. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, as the S&P 500 goes over the full month of January, so goes the full calendar year vintage cufflinks identification. In the last 70 years there have been 10 major errors: 1966, 1968, 1982, 2001, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2015, and of course 2018..
The S&P 500 usually goes up. In the last 91 years the index has risen in 62 of them and fallen in 29 of them. At the time of writing, after only two full trading days of 2019, the index is down 2.35 percent vintage cufflinks identification. Plenty of time for a turnaround, but sentiment is most definitely bearish. It was a rotten week for Apple after boss Tim Cook warned that China’s economic slowdown has caught the company off guard and trade tensions between Washington and Beijing were starting to hurt consumer spending on smartphones in the world’s 2nd largest economy..
Cook’s bombshell fueled worries that Apple’s relatively pricey smartphones may be falling out of favor in China, where rivals such as Huawei offer cheaper options vintage cufflinks identification. Apple shares tumbled 10 percent on Thursday – a remarkable fall for one of the world’s most valuable and liquid stocks – resulting in the S&P Technology index’s worst day since August 2011. It deepened the recent equities rout and cemented the increasingly gloomy picture for corporate earnings, the early indications of which will become clearer in the upcoming earnings season that kicks off later this month. Analysts’ outlook is already pretty bleak: estimated earnings growth for world technology stocks 12 months ahead is just 5.6 percent, its lowest since April 2009..
The start of the year is normally a busy time for sovereign debt issuers, especially developing nations. Emerging market debt has risen steadily in recent years, and pay-back time is approaching: over $4 trillion of EM debt matures by the end of 2020, of which around a third is denominated in foreign currency, according to the Institute of International Finance. But it might be different this year. Worries over global growth are deepening and sending tremors through world markets, dampening investors’ appetite for riskier assets and making it harder and more expensive for EM issuers to roll over debt and borrow vintage cufflinks identification.