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Since the ECB last met, markets have reassessed the rates outlook for major central banks. Bets on U.S. rate hikes this year have been priced out. Euro zone money market pricing suggests investors do not expect the ECB to lift rates until well into 2020 how to wear cufflinks with blazer. In December, a 10 bps hike this year was anticipated. Economists have also shifted their views: ABN AMRO believes the ECB will signal that rates will be left on hold through 2019 by the June meeting. HSBC does not expect any change in the ECB’s deposit rate until at least the end of 2020..
Graphic: When will the ECB raise interest rates? tmsnrt.rs/2AQmxc2. 3. When does the ECB expect inflation to move higher?. Easing inflation complicates the ECB’s rate-hike plan how to wear cufflinks with blazer. Inflation in the bloc eased more than expected in December to 1.6 percent, moving away from the ECB’s just-under 2-percent target. Some comfort for the ECB, and perhaps something Draghi may focus on if questioned about inflation, is the pick-up in underlying price pressures as wage growth increases. A dip in euro zone inflation and growth was anticipated so it is not enough to unravel expectations of a rate hike, Sabine Lautenschlaeger, the most prominent hawk on the ECB Executive Board, said in an interview last week..
Graphic: Easing inflation complicates ECB’s rate hike plan – tmsnrt.rs/2AQuG03. 4. Has the weak data encouraged the ECB to start discussing new multi-year loans to banks? how to wear cufflinks with blazer. Minutes from the ECB’s last meeting showed policymakers are likely to debate new multi-year loans to banks, a potent stimulus tool, in coming months as they navigate a “fragile and fluid” global context. Investors are keen for details on what a new set of loans to banks may look like. That means a question on new bank loans may come up at the press conference even if analysts say it’s still early days for the ECB to give any details..
The multi-year loans inject liquidity into the financial system by giving incentives to commercial banks to lend to companies and consumers. The previous four-year TLTROs expire in mid-2020 and lenders will need to start deciding about a year before their maturity on how to replace them. Graphic: Gap between euro corporate bond and benchmark government yields – tmsnrt.rs/2RTOqcB. 5. Is the ECB prepared for a no-deal Brexit? how to wear cufflinks with blazer. Britain’s March 29 deadline for leaving the European Union is fast approaching, but Prime Minister Theresa May’s exit deal has just suffered a resounding defeat in parliament..
While a high degree of uncertainty remains, concerns about the UK leaving the EU without a deal have eased how to wear cufflinks with blazer. Risk reversals in the British pound suggest currency markets are less worried about prospects of a no-deal Brexit. While the popular market gauge, which shows the ratio of calls to puts on a particular currency, still highlights caution, it has recovered from the extreme bearishness on the pound in November. The financial sector is prepared to cope with any fallout from a no-deal Brexit, the ECB’s Francois Villeroy de Galhau said last week..