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“I think they have certainly changed their tune,” said Eric Stein, a portfolio manager for Eaton Vance who attended Rosengren’s talk. “If financial conditions continue to ease from here (as they have to start the year) and growth stays strong, I think they will still look to hike, but for now a wait and see approach is prudent.”. Stocks extended a fourth straight day of gains on Wednesday as policymakers spoke and the minutes were released, partially reversing the precipitous drop in the fourth quarter of 2018 cufflinks shirts zara.
Three of the four policymakers who spoke Wednesday — Charles Evans of Chicago, Eric Rosengren of Boston, and James Bullard of St cufflinks shirts zara. Louis — are voting members this year on the Federal Open Market Committee, the bank’s 10-member policy-setting panel. While Bullard has long opposed the Fed’s rate hikes, the caution from Evans and Rosengren marked a shift in their views. Evans, who has been among the most vocal backers of gradually tightening U.S. monetary policy, told reporters Wednesday he still believes the Fed will need to deliver three more rate hikes this year..
But, in his first public comments since November, he nodded to an array of “tough-to-read” factors highlighted by the recent market selloff. With inflation showing no signs of breaking above the Fed’s 2-percent target, he said, “we have good capacity to wait and carefully take stock of the incoming data and other developments.” cufflinks shirts zara. Rosengren similarly said he expects solid growth this year and said he suspects financial markets are “unduly pessimistic,” and said in a Bloomberg TV interview he thinks the Fed will need to raise rates twice this year..
But in a break from speeches last year, when he emphasized the risks of allowing unemployment to stay below sustainable levels for too long, Rosengren on Wednesday highlighted potential threats to growth. He said he was taking on board the cautionary signals from markets, including rising bets on rate cuts. “There should be no particular bias toward raising or lowering rates until the data more clearly indicate the path for domestic and international economic growth,” Rosengren told the Boston Economic Club cufflinks shirts zara. “I believe we can wait for greater clarity before adjusting policy.”..
The Fed’s own forecasts, released after the central bank’s fourth 2018 rate hike in December, called for two more rate hikes this year. Traders disagree cufflinks shirts zara. Short-term U.S. interest-rate futures are now pricing in less than a one-in-four chance of a rate hike this year, and about a one-in-four chance of a rate cut by next January. The minutes of the Fed’s December meeting released Wednesday provided a more nuanced view of the policy outlook. While the voting members unanimously backed the December rate hike, they judged a “relatively limited amount of additional tightening likely would be appropriate”. A few of the seven non-voting members of the panel opposed the rate increase..